Utah universities, including institutions that serve Northern Utah residents such as Weber State University, are preparing for significant budget impacts driven by a nationwide demographic decline in traditional college-aged individuals and decreasing enrollment rates within the state. Fiscal analysts are bracing for future budget adjustments, despite Utah faring better than the national average in this "existential hazard," according to a new report.
The challenge in Utah isn't solely tied to declining fertility rates. The percentage of high school graduates enrolling in a public Utah college within three years has also steadily dropped, from 56.7% in 2019 to a projected 51.7% by 2025, as stated by Kem C. Gardner Institute researchers in a presentation to the Utah Board of Higher Education on Wednesday.
This shrinking enrollment is expected to have a substantial impact on Utah schools’ budgets. Phil Dean, chief economist with the Kem C. Gardner Policy Institute at the University of Utah, emphasized that these are not sudden "instantaneous cliffs" but rather "slow moving" changes. He noted that while there is time to navigate the shifts, it requires a conscious approach.
Among the solutions recommended by the Kem C. Gardner Institute is a focus on student retention and completion rates. Data from the Utah System of Higher Education shows that Utah universities and colleges lost approximately 7,000 students from the 2023 cohort. Andrea Brandley, a senior education analyst at the Gardner Institute, explained that retaining these students could effectively offset the losses anticipated from the demographic dip. She added that if these students were retained for three years to complete a bachelor's degree, the positive impact on enrollment and student outcomes would multiply.
Another strategy to mitigate the effects of shifting demographics involves attracting students over the age of 25. Brandley cited a study by the Lumina Foundation, noting that more than a third of working-age adults currently lack any credential, and a larger portion possess certificates but could benefit from further education. She suggested that while the fundamental mission of higher education remains constant, the students it serves and the methods of education delivery may evolve, requiring proactive adaptation.
Gardner Institute analysts also pointed to building on existing systemwide coordination efforts, which could lead to a unified system of courses across different institutions.
Utah Commissioner of Higher Education Geoffrey Landward stated that "rethinking about how we’re operating this system became an imperative" given that colleges and universities nationwide are facing similar challenges. Landward highlighted that competition with other states will be intense, observing that other states are "scrambling to try and rethink how their state systems are operating" due to the same data and problems. He believes Utah's current position, being "ahead," offers a strategic advantage if the state can capitalize on its early efforts.