A planned data center campus in Box Elder County, the Stratos Project, could release "dangerous quantities" of air pollution, leading to premature deaths, illnesses like asthma and heart attacks, and significant health-related economic damage, according to a new report from EmPower Analytics Group. The analysis, commissioned by the Natural Resources Defense Council, highlights potential impacts not only for residents across Northern Utah but also in neighboring states.
If the full 9-gigawatt buildout of the Stratos Project is powered mostly by natural gas and operates at 90% capacity, EmPower Analytics Group CEO Michael Cork stated in a news release that it could lead to up to 45 additional premature deaths and $690 million in health damages each year. This impact would extend far beyond Utah's borders, affecting residents in Idaho, Wyoming, and Colorado, and potentially reaching as far as Illinois. The report indicates such a scenario could emit up to 3,140 tons of fine particulate matter, a pollutant linked to severe health issues. The largest increases in fine particulate matter would occur near the data center’s site, particularly in Box Elder and Cache counties, as well as southern Idaho, with smaller increases extending to the Wasatch Front. This pollution would add to an already challenging regional air quality environment, which experiences winter inversions and elevated summer ozone levels, the study notes.
The Stratos Project is a massive data center campus initially envisioned at 40,000 acres, though its current plan is for 20,000 acres. Its full development would require about 9 gigawatts of power generation, more than double the entire state of Utah's consumption. Presentations from former Military Installation Development Authority officers leading the project previously indicated that the power plant envisioned for the site was meant to be solely fueled by natural gas, explicitly tied to the Ruby natural gas pipeline.
Following intense scrutiny over the project, Utah Gov. Spencer Cox addressed the situation, stating that the developers — backed by "Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary — have committed to exploring other energy resources. These include renewables, energy storage, and nuclear power generation, in addition to natural gas. However, specific commitments regarding the energy generation technology for the center have not yet been made. Gov. Cox also said in May that the first phase of the project is capped at 1.5 gigawatts of energy generation, and future permits must be "contingent on meeting clear metrics and expectations during this initial phase." A spokesperson for the Stratos Project developers did not immediately respond to a request for comment on the report.
The EmPower Analytics Group evaluated two plausible methane-gas technologies for 3-gigawatt and 9-gigawatt scenarios. One technology, gas-fired reciprocating internal combustion engines (RICE), has already been permitted for a data center campus in Millard County by Joule Capital Partners. Analysts noted that RICE technology is estimated to cause about five to six times more premature deaths and economic damages compared to modern combined-cycle gas, which is a more efficient method.
Regardless of the specific natural gas technology chosen, the study concludes that any natural gas power generation would imply substantial public health costs. Analysts wrote that all scenarios are estimated to cause premature deaths and illness, not just near the Stratos Project but across a much wider region. They cautioned that these estimates only cover air pollution from on-site power generation and do not include other potential environmental and community impacts such as construction, water use, noise, or land use. Over 30 years, the Stratos Project's natural gas power generation could contribute to hundreds of premature deaths and billions of dollars in economic damages. The study specifies that at 9 gigawatts, these harms could accumulate to approximately 856–1,350 premature deaths and $13.5–20.7 billion if gas-fired RICE technology is used, compared with 145–253 premature deaths and $2.3–3.8 billion under combined-cycle gas.
Logan Mitchell, a climate scientist and regulatory manager at Utah Clean Energy who collaborated on the report, urged policymakers and regulators to consider these health and economic impacts. He emphasized that responsible off-grid data center developments should prioritize "the maximum amount of clean, emission-free generation resources ahead of fossil fuels."
